Inflation Cools in January

Inflation cooled in January, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on February 13, 2026. Headline inflation came in lower than expected, with categories such as gasoline and used vehicles helping bring overall price growth down. While inflation has not yet returned to the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target, the data reinforced the ongoing trend of gradual easing that has been developing over the past several months.

Our Take

For investors, the importance of this report is less about one specific month and more about what it signals. Inflation directly influences interest rates, and interest rates play a major role in determining asset values. When inflation shows signs of stabilizing, it reduces uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve may do next. That stability can help calm bond markets, which serve as the foundation for pricing commercial real estate loans and private credit investments.

In industrial real estate, the past two years have required underwriting deals in an environment of elevated and often unpredictable financing costs. A steadier inflation backdrop increases the likelihood of a more stable rate environment in 2026. Even if interest rates remain higher than the ultra-low levels of prior years, reduced volatility alone can help narrow the gap between buyers and sellers. Greater clarity around borrowing costs supports more confident assumptions about cap rates, long-term rent growth, and exit values.

For private credit investors, moderating inflation can also be constructive. If base interest rates gradually ease or stabilize, borrowers may face less pressure from rising debt costs. That can improve cash flow coverage and reduce default risk across portfolios. At the same time, lenders must remain disciplined, as a more stable environment can also lead to increased competition and tighter pricing.

The broader takeaway is straightforward: cooling inflation does not mean a return to easy money, but it does suggest a more predictable investment climate. For long-term private market investors, predictability often creates opportunity.

Source: Stock Market News, Feb. 13, 2026: Indexes Close the Week With Losses; Inflation Slows

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